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In a Tarot deck of 78 cards, what are the odds of pulling the same card twice in a row?

Mathematically, it’s 1:78 to pull a specific card. But what are the odds of pulling the SAME card twice in a row?

23 COMMENTS

  1. 1/78. Assuming you don’t mean a specific card (like “the Death card”) twice. If you do mean a specific up-front specified card twice, the answer would be (1/78)^2.
    But for just ANY card twice in a row, it’s the same as one specific card. The first draw can be any card at all (probability: 78/78 = 1/1), then the second draw must match the original card (probability: 1/78).
    1/1 * 1/78 = 1/78.
    Of course, this assumes you draw “with replacement” (putting back the card after you draw it). Otherwise the probability is 0.

  2. It’s 1 in 78. It works that way because you didn’t specify which card. If you draw a card, all that needs to happen for your condition to be met is for that same card to be drawn again. It would be 1 in 6084 if you had a specific card in mind that you wanted drawn twice in a row.

  3. It’s still 1/78 because no matter what card you pull first, your odds of pulling the same one again are still 1/78. Now if you are thinking of a card to pull twice BEFORE your first pull, then the odds are 1/6084

  4. I think its 1/78 times 1/78 =0.000164366
    … (the probability of getting that card the first time, then the probability of getting that card the second time, after replacing it.) I am not sure though…I took stats a long time ago. What do other people think?
    Actually never mind, looking at other peoples answers, its just 1/78 (what i said above only applies if u specified what card u were pulling)

  5. You are correct that the pulling any particular card on the first draw is 1/78. If you replace the card and randomly draw again, the chance of getting a particular card on the second draw is also 1/78. To get the joint probability of picking the SAME card in two successive draws you multiply 1/78 x 1/78. The resulting probability is 0.000164. To put this in perspective, if you drew two cards in this way 100,000,000 times, you would draw the same card twice in a row about 164 times!

  6. The probability of pulling any one card is 1 / 78.
    Replace the drawn cardback into the deck and shuffle.
    The probability of pulling the same card as from the first pull is 1 / 78.
    Since the pulls are independent events, we can multiply the probabilities of the seperate pulls to calculate the probability of pulling the same card twice with replacement.
    P(pulling same card twice with replacement)
    = (1/ 78)(1 / 78)
    = 1 / 6084

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  8. I did two readings last night, Celtic Cross spread. Both times the significator came from the deck, so 11 cards were put down.
    The deck was thoroughly shuffled between readings. Both times, I cut the deck into three piles and put them back in random order before laying out the reading (the first 11 cards off the top of the deck).
    The outcome card was the same in both readings. Was the probability of that occurrence 1 / 6084?

  9. Things of this nature have been going on for quite some time. One night I told Kris lets go to the bar, I am drawn there. When we got there I saw the Tarot, I asked her if she had her cards. The three of us went down stairs, before we began I needed grounds for understanding. I asked The Tarot if the cards would show the future and she said no this is relative to what is happening now (or so she thought because what happened next flew over her head). I looked up, I said the prayer, so helped by God we used my hand and drew the 11 cards together. The first card The Tarot flipped over was of the upside down lion, she proceeded to tell me that I had been humbled. I began to cry, the rest of the cards she flipped proceeded to tell an accurate story. Then Kris pulled her cards, I had revealed the immediate Future, I pulled Her cards before she did. Her first card with the upright lion, 2 of Her cards were in slightly different order. We both sat down and pulled the same cards back to back with each other. What does this mean to all of you?

  10. I opened a new deck on Monday, and I shuffled them thoroughly, I asked “who am I” and pulled the 3 of Coins. The book I am ready (Mary Greer – 21 ways to read a tarot card) told me to do it two more times. I shuffled very thoroughly and pulled the 3 of Coins again. I shuffled a third time (as the book told me to – asking the same question each time) and YES the third time I got the 3 of Coins.
    It is a brand-new deck so the cards are not bent or worn. So weird! The book has you study the same card for all 21 exercises so I am definitely sticking with the 3 of Coins – though I have never identified with the Coins/Pentacles/Disks (what have you).

    • 78 to the third power is 474,552. So my chances of pulling the same card three shuffles in a row is 1 in 474,552 – which is still better odds than winning the lottery (especially since I don’t play the lottery).

  11. After my first Reiki session I was checking out the tarot decks in the store gift shop and I pulled the ‘Buddha’ (aka Consciousness) card twice in a row from the demo deck. I then purchased a new deck, took it home and pulled the Buddha card for a third time as the first card randomly pulled form the deck… I think those odds are 0.000000027. or 27 time in 1 Billion shot – not counting the fully new deck in the mix.

  12. Please help guys 🙁 I bought a tarot deck for myself the other day and in it I received 2 hermit cards but no chariot card. Should I tell Spencer’s the store I got it or should I pretend one of the is actually the chariot card since 2 came in the same deck?

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