All this talk about 2012, what about 2036?

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I hear all this constant chat about the apocalypse in 2012 and the world is going to end, I highly doubt this theory. What about the asteroid 99942 Apophis that will near Earth in 2029, and possibly a future impact on April 13, 2036 (by the way… Friday the 13th). If this asteroid misses it’s gravitational keyhole in space it’s supposed to travel through, the western hemisphere may be doomed, especially Los Angeles! There a one in a million chance this could happen in 2036. Even though a lot a people are freaked out about 2012.


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Geoff G

None of these dates are cause for concern, according to well informed astronomers.

UltimateBeast17

Well first they said it was 1 in 1,000 chance of hitting then 1 in 10,000 and finally 1 in 1,000,000 it probably won’t be

victor

as mentioned before, this dates are not of concern. Apophis has a 1/250000 chance of hitting Earth, that’s pretty much 0%. and 2012 is just non-sense.

Mark V

You have it the other way around. It *has* to go through that tiny tiny “keyhole” to give it a remote chance of hitting Earth. If it doesn’t, which is the good odds, it flies right by, just unusually close and pretty in the night sky.
It’s currently a 1 in 43 million chance that it will pass through the “keyhole,” a zero on the Torino impact scale (a likelihood scale). Every single year that we observe it, they add on a couple million more chances that it *won’t* hit, because we’ve been refining our measurements and thus calculations. As far as this gravitational keyhole, the chances are like taking a very fine screen mesh for your back door, putting it between the football uprights, choosing one little square mesh, giving your friend a grain of sand, putting him a mile away, and telling him to throw that grain through that hole from that distance.
A chance? Sure. Likely? Uh-uh.

Bullseye

A 1 in a million chance??? You have a greater chance of slipping in the shower and killing yourself. Certainly you have a better chance of dying in a car accident or plane crash.
Good grief! If it misses the keyhole it will miss the Earth. You have more serious things to worry about.

eric1555

1/1000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 percent chance it is going to happen .

Bella

Neither 2012 nor 2036 is going to end the world. The asteroid Apophis has only a 1 in 250,000 chance of impacting Earth in 2036. If it DOES happen to pass through the narrow gravitational keyhole in 2029 we could have impact. At only 330 meters, Apophis is too small to doom an entire hemisphere. It would cause great regional devastation. But, consider this:
Least likely Odds of dying by least to most likely
1. Fireworks Discharge: Lifetime odds: 1 in 340,733
2. Flood: Lifetime Odds: 1 in 144,156.
3. Earthquake: Lifetime Odds: 1 in 117,127.
4. Lightning: Lifetime Odds: 1 in 79,746.
5. Legal Execution: Lifetime Odds: 1 in 62,468.
6. Hornet, Wasp, or Bee Sting: Lifetime Odds: 1 in 56,789.
7. Hot Weather: Lifetime Odds: 1 in 13,729.
8. Alcohol Poisoning: Lifetime Odds: 1 in 10,048.
9. Accidental Electrocution: Lifetime Odds: 1 in 9,968.
10. Accidental Firearm Discharge: Lifetime Odds: 1 in 5,134
Most likely, arranged from most to least likely:
1. Heart Disease: Lifetime Odds: 1 in 5
2. Cancer: Lifetime Odds: 1 in 7.
3. Stroke: Lifetime Odds: 1 in 24.
4. Motor Vehicle Accident: Lifetime Odds: 1 in 84.
5. Suicide: Lifetime Odds: 1 in 119.
6. Falling: Lifetime Odds: 1 in 218.
7. Firearm Assault: Lifetime Odds: 1 in 314.
8. Pedestrian Accident: Lifetime Odds: 1 in 626.
9. Drowning: Lifetime Odds: 1 in 1,008.
10. Motorcycle Accident: Lifetime Odds: 1 in 1,020
You can see from these statistics that you are worrying about the wrong things. The 1 chance in 250,000 for Apophis is just to have an impact. Your odds of dying from such an impact are far lower. So Apophis strike is just above the chances of your dying from a fireworks discharge (the least likely of the rated causes of death). Your odds of dying from heart disease are 50,000 times that of having Apophis impact Earth. Your odds of dying from being struck by lightning are 4 times that of Apophis hitting us.
If you are concerned about dying, your best course of action would be to eat right, don’t smoke. drive carefully, take care with firearms, stay inside during thunderstorms, and look both ways before crossing the street.

Faesson

Go ask an astronomer about near-Earth asteroids. Oh, wait… I AM one.
They are cool.
Sure, if one hit us it would be a different story, but they fly by ALL THE TIME. WEEKLY. As big as Apophis? Some are. As close? Some are. A lot we don’t even see until they pass by. This used to be how we would spot a new one. Seriously.
2012 is just a hoax. Apophis isn’t even a big asteroid. Stop worrying and go study History, I hear there will be a test.

Anony

I”m onnly 14 so I don’t know about this subject as well as most, but Isn’t there supposed to be some kind of solar storm in 2012?

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